Israel and the ‘Demographic Bomb’ The Story of an Erroneous Myth

Abstract

Since the onset of the Zionist movement in the late 19th century and following the establishment of the state of Israel ‘the demographic issue’, namely, the balance between Jews and Arabs constituted one of its ‘top priority agendas’. This issue was given many names, such as ‘the demographic bomb’, ‘the demographic danger’, and ‘the demographic threat’. The main thesis of the paper is that Israel indeed suffers from a ‘ticking demographic time bomb’. However, this ‘bomb’ does not relate to the balance between Jews and Arabs, but rather to the stratification of the Israeli society. Specifically, the article examines Israel’s natal policy from the broader aspects of both macro-economic and employment policies. The success of the Israeli natal policy should be examined first and foremost in the area of its influence on the fertility rates of its Arab citizens, particularly the Muslims, for the past two decades. The main conclusion of the paper is that the Israeli natal policy largely failed. The major reason for this failure, it appears, is not only that in practice the Israeli natal policy was excluded from the broader aspects of the macro-economic and employment policies, but also was largely opposed to them.